The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
King Of Kingsloss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SG e-sportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
King Of Kings
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
432 picks · 192 bans
Mars
388 picks · 572 bans
Puck
385 picks · 871 bans
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 320 bans
Tiny
320 picks · 232 bans
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 394 bans
Ancient Apparition
282 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% King Of Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% King Of Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:15
King Of Kings 56%SG e-sports 44%
The model gave 56% on King Of Kings — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 35:02.
Game 2prediction missed21:25
King Of Kings 56%SG e-sports 44%
The model gave 56% on King Of Kings — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 36:26.
Game 3prediction missed16:37
King Of Kings 56%SG e-sports 44%
The model gave 56% on King Of Kings — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 42:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteKing Of Kings · 56%
Series resultSG e-sports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3