ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4win 1:0series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
KZ TEAM
Rubick
dEsire · 16 games
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 375 bans
Grimstroke
175 picks · 157 bans
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Dark Willow
165 picks · 69 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 235 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 186 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:14
Klim Sani4 22%KZ TEAM 78%
The model gave 78% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 33:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 78%
Series resultKlim Sani4 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1