Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4loss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 11 games
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 10 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 7 games
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 7 games
Enchantress
so bad · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 336 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 115 bans
Treant Protector
218 picks · 470 bans
Phoenix
214 picks · 298 bans
Vengeful Spirit
211 picks · 219 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 374 bans
Muerta
193 picks · 287 bans
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 438 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 73%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:11
Klim Sani4 44%Nemiga Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:19.
Game 2prediction correct35:37
Klim Sani4 44%Nemiga Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:04:23.
Game 3prediction correct45:24
Klim Sani4 44%Nemiga Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 56%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3