ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionKXkomanda xloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliancewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
komanda x
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Lodine · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 1 game
Earthshaker
MTD · 1 game
Muerta
xsvampire · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
MTD · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
181 picks · 175 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 386 bans
Dark Willow
172 picks · 70 bans
Sven
169 picks · 246 bans
Earthshaker
168 picks · 166 bans
Earth Spirit
149 picks · 241 bans
Phoenix
149 picks · 200 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:34
komanda x 31%Alliance 69%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 41:23.
Game 2prediction correct35:5
komanda x 31%Alliance 69%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 29:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 69%
Series resultAlliance 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2