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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KoT.Nextloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GRIN esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KoT.Next

No games played over 6 months.

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
426 picks · 695 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 653 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
404 picks · 324 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 481 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
384 picks · 848 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
360 picks · 359 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
355 picks · 159 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:30
KoT.Next 46%GRIN esports 54%
The model gave 54% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 22:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckhigh_shaggy
55% · 72 games53% · 28 games
KunkkaMoo
Kunkka
38% · 44 games
Crystal MaidenLodine
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct8:28
KoT.Next 42%GRIN esports 58%
The model gave 58% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 22:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckhigh_shaggy
41% · 78 games55% · 47 games
Primal BeastMoo
Primal Beast
63% · 31 game
DisruptorLodine
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 65%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2