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IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Кыргызстанloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Швецияwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Кыргызстан

No games played over 6 months.

Швеция

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Charlie · 2 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
bengan · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 1 game
100%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 1 game
100%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Charlie · 1 game
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
bengan · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 652 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 455 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 517 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
348 picks · 435 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 644 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 171 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 389 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 302 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Швеция
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Кыргызстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:47
Кыргызстан 57%Швеция 43%
The model gave 57% on Кыргызстан — the game was taken by Швеция in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterKami
48% · 130 games41% · 15 games
LycanCharlie
Lycan
Invoker
InvokerAskold
55% · 78 games53% · 157 games
Monkey KingExcalibur
Monkey King
Lion
Lionsunset
44% · 108 games55% · 121 game
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
Enchantress
EnchantressMax
50% · 207 games47% · 230 games
Phoenixbengan
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed16:32
Кыргызстан 56%Швеция 44%
The model gave 56% on Кыргызстан — the game was taken by Швеция in 52:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAskold
54% · 36 games46% · 41 game
TerrorbladeCharlie
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordKami
50% · 50 games60% · 12 games
MeepoExcalibur
Meepo
Lich
LichMax
62% · 16 games42% · 128 games
HoodwinkPablo
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsunset
57% · 99 games40% · 20 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteКыргызстан · 63%
Series resultШвеция 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2