Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
Mirana
dEsire · 17 games
Snapfireoften banned
SsaSpartan · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
dEsire · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
407 picks · 195 bans
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 469 bans
Techies
283 picks · 262 bans
Undying
282 picks · 466 bans
Morphling
265 picks · 504 bans
Batrider
260 picks · 452 bans
Storm Spirit
249 picks · 444 bans
Timbersaw
246 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:50
KZ TEAM 54%4 Zoomers 46%
The model gave 54% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 45:13.
Game 2prediction correct30:16
KZ TEAM 54%4 Zoomers 46%
The model gave 54% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 26:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 54%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2