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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 16 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 15 games
53%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 12 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 12 games
42%

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
54%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
64%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
266 picks · 383 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 432 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
216 picks · 553 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
196 picks · 176 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% B8 Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total63% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:6
KZ TEAM 54%B8 Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOtaker
49% · 161 game52% · 66 games
UrsaFocus
Ursa
Lina
LinaSupream^
50% · 76 games47% · 108 games
Keeper of the LightDendi
Keeper of the Light
Pudge
PudgeSkyLark
38% · 64 games61% · 113 games
TimbersawStoneBank
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAstral
49% · 98 games53% · 131 game
EnchantressMary_y
Enchantress
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
46% · 119 games54% · 100 games
LionCTOMAHEH1
Lion
Game 2prediction correct41:37
KZ TEAM 57%B8 Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 47:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidOtaker
61% · 121 game46% · 77 games
UrsaFocus
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
54% · 276 games47% · 110 games
WindrangerDendi
Windranger
Pudge
PudgeSkyLark
48% · 63 games47% · 135 games
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
53% · 124 games49% · 240 games
Nature's ProphetMary_y
Nature's Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
44% · 125 games49% · 147 games
LionCTOMAHEH1
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 63%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2