Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BTbased teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 27 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 25 games
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 20 games
Earthshaker
dEsire · 18 games
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
Undyingsignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
based team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 585 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 439 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 376 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 957 bans
Undying
401 picks · 587 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 891 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:16
KZ TEAM 59%based team 41%
The model gave 59% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 33:52.
Game 2prediction correct59:20
KZ TEAM 59%based team 41%
The model gave 59% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 41:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 59%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2