Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HAVU Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 25 games
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 19 games
Earthshaker
dEsire · 15 games
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
Undyingsignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Leshracsignature
W1sh- · 14 games
HAVU Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
728 picks · 610 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1056 bans
Doom
425 picks · 704 bans
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 1006 bans
Tiny
388 picks · 372 bans
Undying
384 picks · 608 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:25
KZ TEAM 63%HAVU Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 35:35.
Game 2prediction correct39:16
KZ TEAM 63%HAVU Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 33:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 63%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2