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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 13 games
38%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 12 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 9 games
78%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Supream^ · 7 games
71%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
RESPECT · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
466 picks · 496 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
456 picks · 215 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 660 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 604 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
331 picks · 704 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
327 picks · 763 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
311 picks · 637 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
311 picks · 521 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:44
KZ TEAM 50%Into The Breach 50%
The model gave 50% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:25:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
52% · 108 games52% · 158 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinydEsire
51% · 228 games50% · 62 games
Troll WarlordLowskill
Troll Warlord
Pudge
PudgeNande
45% · 42 games57% · 59 games
Legion CommanderXibbe
Legion Commander
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
40% · 67 games54% · 193 games
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
Treant Protector
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
39% · 27 games
Game 2prediction correct31:13
KZ TEAM 52%Into The Breach 48%
The model gave 52% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
45% · 80 games48% · 48 games
AlchemistLowskill
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightW1sh-
46% · 63 games47% · 48 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Lycan
LycanSkyLark
52% · 83 games50% · 97 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
55% · 69 games51% · 149 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
57% · 47 games
Game 3prediction correct37:10
KZ TEAM 55%Into The Breach 45%
The model gave 55% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 28:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkNande
58% · 58 games37% · 32 games
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Phantom Assassin
Doom
DoomSkyLark
56% · 101 game48% · 64 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainW1sh-
53% · 48 games49% · 79 games
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Earthshaker
EarthshakerdEsire
50% · 38 games42% · 96 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
62% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 55%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3