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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IVYwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 25 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 23 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 23 games
35%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SsaSpartan · 14 games
57%

IVY

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 18 games
39%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Qupe · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 16 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 15 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 13 games
31%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mo13ei · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 598 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 494 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
463 picks · 1126 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
458 picks · 836 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
411 picks · 1053 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
388 picks · 553 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 844 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 212 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:40
KZ TEAM 44%IVY 56%
The model gave 56% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritG.T.I
53% · 119 games55% · 68 games
Void SpiritOtaker
Void Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordMr. Luck
50% · 64 games53% · 41 game
MagnusMikSa`
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaNikolica
44% · 65 games56% · 24 games
Queen of PainMoonlight
Queen of Pain
50% · 89 games
Miranarue
Mirana
33% · 26 games
Winter Wyvernjmn-
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct21:34
KZ TEAM 42%IVY 58%
The model gave 58% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckG.T.I
50% · 129 games61% · 51 game
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Windranger
WindrangerMr. Luck
31% · 52 games52% · 52 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Venomancer
VenomancerNikolica
47% · 46 games59% · 69 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
57% · 21 game
Oraclejmn-
Oracle
54% · 34 games
Pugnarue
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 62%
Series resultIVY 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2