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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Keyd Starsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 15 games
53%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 12 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
FCR · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
FCR · 6 games
83%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
Kingrd · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 5 games
20%
Windranger
Windranger
4nalog · 5 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
KJ · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 161 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
243 picks · 313 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
211 picks · 421 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
200 picks · 305 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
198 picks · 420 bans
49%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
197 picks · 373 bans
51%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
195 picks · 113 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
183 picks · 279 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:24
KZ TEAM 50%Keyd Stars 50%
The model gave 50% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 36:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNande
46% · 45 games55% · 17 games
LunaCostabile
Luna
Kunkka
KunkkaW1sh-
42% · 50 games50% · 48 games
BrewmasterFCR
Brewmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
51% · 69 games52% · 83 games
Primal Beast4nalog
Primal Beast
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
53% · 75 games50% · 69 games
EarthshakerKingrd
Earthshaker
53% · 22 games
BaneKJ
Bane
Game 2prediction missed27:40
KZ TEAM 52%Keyd Stars 48%
The model gave 52% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 51:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNande
54% · 95 games43% · 71 game
Troll WarlordCostabile
Troll Warlord
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
48% · 84 games47% · 55 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSsaSpartan
59% · 195 games54% · 192 games
Primal BeastFCR
Primal Beast
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSkyLark
51% · 69 games48% · 77 games
Dark WillowKingrd
Dark Willow
39% · 48 games
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed32:35
KZ TEAM 49%Keyd Stars 51%
The model gave 51% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
49% · 98 games60% · 27 games
GyrocopterCostabile
Gyrocopter
Lycan
LycanSkyLark
51% · 61 game48% · 15 games
RazorFCR
Razor
Dazzle
DazzleW1sh-
56% · 22 games53% · 97 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSsaSpartan
43% · 19 games40% · 28 games
Earth SpiritKingrd
Earth Spirit
47% · 33 games
Vengeful SpiritKJ
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 50%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3