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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 14 games
43%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
30%

Natus Vincere Junior

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 14 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 11 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Niku · 10 games
20%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 337 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
242 picks · 116 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 477 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 298 bans
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
204 picks · 209 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 297 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 418 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
197 picks · 365 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:43
KZ TEAM 59%Natus Vincere Junior 41%
The model gave 59% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 58:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritW1sh-
49% · 197 games51% · 100 games
Slarkgotthejuice
Slark
Lifestealer
Lifestealer7jesu
42% · 56 games57% · 125 games
Keeper of the LightNiku
Keeper of the Light
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSkyLark
52% · 28 games49% · 90 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
45% · 93 games49% · 156 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Tiny
TinyAstral
48% · 188 games57% · 91 game
PugnaDaze
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed14:39
KZ TEAM 59%Natus Vincere Junior 41%
The model gave 59% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
46% · 212 games53% · 275 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckW1sh-
44% · 181 game50% · 142 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Kunkka
KunkkaSkyLark
50% · 103 games54% · 232 games
Storm SpiritNiku
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
51% · 160 games57% · 165 games
PugnaDaze
Pugna
Undying
UndyingSsaSpartan
42% · 277 games52% · 119 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 68%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2