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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 18 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 19 games
26%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
pma · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 16 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 427 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 404 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 441 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 627 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
223 picks · 199 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 110 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 305 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total74% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:40
KZ TEAM 74%Natus Vincere Junior 26%
The model gave 74% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:15.
Game 2prediction missed27:41
KZ TEAM 74%Natus Vincere Junior 26%
The model gave 74% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 47:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 74%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2