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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 1:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ninja Penguinsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 18 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
54%

Ninja Penguins

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 5 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
33%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Copy · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Copy · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 425 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 404 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 605 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
225 picks · 205 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
220 picks · 189 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 95 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
KZ TEAM 58%Ninja Penguins 42%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 58%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1