European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ninja Penguinswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 22 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 19 games
Rubick
Pablo · 17 games
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
Phoenixsignature
Astral · 16 games
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 14 games
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 10 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
MiLAN · 8 games
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 7 games
Magnussignature
Corrupted · 6 games
Lion
MiLAN · 5 games
Luna
Lowskill · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
371 picks · 569 bans
Lion
332 picks · 284 bans
Vengeful Spirit
329 picks · 275 bans
Phoenix
316 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
290 picks · 414 bans
Magnus
289 picks · 467 bans
Grimstroke
283 picks · 460 bans
Nature's Prophet
281 picks · 784 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:42
KZ TEAM 50%Ninja Penguins 50%
The model gave 50% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaSupream^
Arc WardenCopy
UrsaOtaker
Nature's ProphetMiLAN
TimbersawSkyLark
TidehunterCorrupted
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
Monkey KingLowskill
GrimstrokeAstral
Game 2prediction missed49:46
KZ TEAM 53%Ninja Penguins 47%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 1:10:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidOtaker
Death ProphetCopy
Ember SpiritSupream^
MarsCorrupted
TimbersawSkyLark
WeaverLowskill
GrimstrokeAstral
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
TuskSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 53%
Series resultNinja Penguins 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2