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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Old Gwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 24 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Viper
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
54%

Old G

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 15 games
60%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Hduo · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
xsvampire · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Hduo · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
young G · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 472 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 454 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 386 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 578 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
409 picks · 593 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
385 picks · 261 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
374 picks · 626 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 749 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
KZ TEAM 24%Old G 76%
The model gave 76% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 29:42.
Game 2prediction correct7:28
KZ TEAM 24%Old G 76%
The model gave 76% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 27:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 76%
Series resultOld G 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2