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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
SsaSpartan · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%

One Move

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 9 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
Xakoda · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panto · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 496 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
286 picks · 427 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
279 picks · 241 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
270 picks · 187 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 452 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 351 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 727 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
247 picks · 395 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:37
KZ TEAM 61%One Move 39%
The model gave 61% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 1:03:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSupream^
53% · 167 games50% · 145 games
Dragon KnightSSS
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
51% · 284 games51% · 158 games
Magnuschempik
Magnus
Ursa
UrsaOtaker
47% · 86 games48% · 277 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAstral
48% · 109 games57% · 237 games
TechiesXakoda
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixSsaSpartan
44% · 171 game
Game 2prediction correct51:20
KZ TEAM 61%One Move 39%
The model gave 61% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenSupream^
58% · 8 games64% · 94 games
Storm SpiritSSS
Storm Spirit
Ursa
UrsaOtaker
46% · 86 games42% · 35 games
Pudgechempik
Pudge
Slardar
SlardarSkyLark
43% · 28 games51% · 151 game
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAstral
45% · 100 games55% · 101 game
TechiesXakoda
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
45% · 159 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 71%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2