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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Otaker · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
60%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 10 games
40%

SIBE Team

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 9 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Rein · 7 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
klassnokruto · 6 games
83%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
274 picks · 442 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
237 picks · 326 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
227 picks · 114 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
220 picks · 331 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
209 picks · 424 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
205 picks · 181 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
202 picks · 272 bans
49%
Kunkka
Kunkka
197 picks · 538 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 65%
Hero pool strength61% SIBE Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:44
KZ TEAM 58%SIBE Team 42%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 47:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSupream^
68% · 8 games44% · 111 games
Linaряф^^
Lina
Muerta
MuertaOtaker
54% · 93 games45% · 100 games
Wraith Kingnesfeer
Wraith King
Doom
DoomSkyLark
47% · 177 games50% · 62 games
Razorklassnokruto
Razor
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAstral
58% · 122 games43% · 285 games
Tuskemptiness
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSsaSpartan
56% · 256 games47% · 98 games
Vengeful SpiritRein
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed16:31
KZ TEAM 56%SIBE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaOtaker
50% · 60 games53% · 147 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSupream^
52% · 121 game50% · 143 games
Batriderряф^^
Batrider
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSkyLark
50% · 28 games45% · 43 games
Razorklassnokruto
Razor
Muerta
MuertaAstral
50% · 67 games45% · 108 games
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
Centaur Warrunner
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSsaSpartan
54% · 193 games51% · 28 games
OracleRein
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 61%
Series resultSIBE Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2