Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Faithloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 25 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 21 game
Primal Beastoften banned
dEsire · 19 games
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Team Faith
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
787 picks · 539 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
533 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 573 bans
Nature's Prophet
437 picks · 711 bans
Death Prophet
404 picks · 793 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 844 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:14
KZ TEAM 52%Team Faith 48%
The model gave 52% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetG.T.I
MarsNorma
TimbersawMr. Luck
ClockwerkNikolica
Game 2prediction missed33:49
KZ TEAM 53%Team Faith 47%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Team Faith in 1:13:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritG.T.I
Primal BeastNorma
Death ProphetMr. Luck
UndyingNikolica
Game 3prediction correct29:21
KZ TEAM 53%Team Faith 47%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 47:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetMr. Luck
Sand KingNorma
TuskG.T.I
UndyingNikolica
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 55%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3