Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Unityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 14 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 11 games
Pudgeoften banned
Nande · 8 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 7 games
Team Unity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 276 bans
Marci
289 picks · 536 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 233 bans
Undying
264 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 479 bans
Primal Beast
226 picks · 531 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
KZ TEAM 64%Team Unity 36%
The model gave 64% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 35:44.
Game 2prediction correct52:48
KZ TEAM 64%Team Unity 36%
The model gave 64% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 1:04:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 64%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2