Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTrouble Makers Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 25 games
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 19 games
Earthshaker
dEsire · 15 games
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
Undyingsignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Leshracsignature
W1sh- · 14 games
Trouble Makers Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
761 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 469 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1008 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 944 bans
Doom
396 picks · 603 bans
Undying
393 picks · 602 bans
Mirana
386 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:39
KZ TEAM 51%Trouble Makers Reborn 49%
The model gave 51% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 41:38.
Game 2prediction correct16:27
KZ TEAM 51%Trouble Makers Reborn 49%
The model gave 51% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 24:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 51%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2