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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 42 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 39 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 34 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 32 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 31 game
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 31 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 30 games
57%

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 32 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 29 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 27 games
48%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 24 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SSS · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 890 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 392 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 645 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 600 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 843 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 590 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
352 picks · 574 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 493 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total68% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:40
HULIGANI 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 54:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
55% · 216 games51% · 347 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Viper
Viperxn丶e
58% · 81 game46% · 59 games
SniperSquad1x
Sniper
Mars
MarsBb3px
49% · 266 games53% · 143 games
PhoenixSSS
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
61% · 277 games44% · 329 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerslimeyao
46% · 104 games37% · 66 games
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct10:15
HULIGANI 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorv1olent-
46% · 40 games53% · 29 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
48% · 340 games49% · 202 games
BeastmasterSquad1x
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordBb3px
53% · 156 games48% · 162 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Chen
ChenRESPECT
60% · 178 games48% · 77 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
51% · 98 games44% · 342 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 68%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2