CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Corrupted · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 32 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 21 game
Tinysignature
Otaker · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
497 picks · 535 bans
Dark Willow
388 picks · 229 bans
Tusk
352 picks · 411 bans
Puck
332 picks · 878 bans
Batrider
326 picks · 926 bans
Pangolier
314 picks · 479 bans
Tiny
313 picks · 289 bans
Nature's Prophet
295 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:11
HULIGANI 56%4Pirates 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 22:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Propheterase
PudgeOtaker
Terrorbladev1olent-
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
MarciBb3px
Slardarмистер мораль
Dark Willowslimeyao
Tinyariel
Baneaik
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction correct49:45
HULIGANI 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Propheterase
ClinkzOtaker
Ursav1olent-
Underlordмистер мораль
TidehunterBb3px
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Clockwerkslimeyao
Batriderariel
Disruptoraik
TuskPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 66%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2