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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 25 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 23 games
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Alberkaaa · 15 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 15 games
73%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 15 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 41 game
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 40 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 31 game
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 31 game
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 30 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
476 picks · 612 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
462 picks · 398 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
456 picks · 571 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
437 picks · 543 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 487 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 781 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
404 picks · 905 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed53:39
HULIGANI 41%AVULUS 59%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 55:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
44% · 123 games52% · 124 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Night Stalker
Night StalkerAlberkaaa
50% · 71 game55% · 79 games
Earthshakerre1bl
Earthshaker
Tiny
Tinyxn丶e
42% · 265 games40% · 13 games
AbaddonMalik
Abaddon
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAntares
45% · 39 games54% · 309 games
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
Clockwerk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRESPECT
54% · 88 games56% · 61 game
Shadow ShamanEkki
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct9:30
HULIGANI 39%AVULUS 61%
The model gave 61% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
44% · 334 games55% · 293 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
45% · 246 games57% · 285 games
Monkey Kingre1bl
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
42% · 335 games57% · 231 game
EnigmaMalik
Enigma
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAntares
54% · 322 games52% · 445 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
46% · 435 games47% · 418 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct23:29
HULIGANI 42%AVULUS 58%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistv1olent-
52% · 153 games50% · 107 games
Sniperre1bl
Sniper
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
47% · 119 games56% · 177 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
50% · 218 games56% · 47 games
Night StalkerMalik
Night Stalker
Invoker
Invokerxn丶e
44% · 189 games48% · 255 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Riki
RikiAntares
52% · 9 games49% · 102 games
LichSoNNeikO
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 63%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3