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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 38 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 37 games
70%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 34 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 31 game
58%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 30 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 29 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 29 games
52%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 19 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 16 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
529 picks · 772 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 346 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 636 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 551 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
376 picks · 667 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 569 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 462 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
325 picks · 145 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:8
HULIGANI 65%AVULUS 35%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
51% · 307 games53% · 147 games
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Windranger
Puck
Puckerase
53% · 259 games38% · 65 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
Chen
ChenRESPECT
55% · 156 games48% · 214 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Slardar
SlardarBb3px
58% · 174 games49% · 72 games
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Crystal Maiden
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
43% · 81 game48% · 479 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed21:25
HULIGANI 62%AVULUS 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by AVULUS in 50:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
Omniknightv1olent-
57% · 23 games53% · 188 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Tiny
Tinyerase
51% · 418 games57% · 246 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
45% · 382 games52% · 202 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Tinker
TinkerRESPECT
38% · 119 games59% · 118 games
Bounty HunterWein
Bounty Hunter
Windranger
Windrangerslimeyao
47% · 236 games49% · 424 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed10:28
HULIGANI 62%AVULUS 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by AVULUS in 24:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
50% · 143 games59% · 44 games
ClinkzSmiling Knight
Clinkz
Underlord
UnderlordBb3px
38% · 86 games53% · 169 games
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
Leshracerase
51% · 135 games49% · 273 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanslimeyao
46% · 178 games50% · 372 games
RingmasterWein
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
49% · 341 game63% · 25 games
Treant Protectorasdekor_r
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 72%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3