PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 25 games
Pucksignature
Mirage · 20 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 16 games
Snapfire
OneJey · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 15 games
Chensignature
Panto · 14 games
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
460 picks · 373 bans
Clockwerk
422 picks · 542 bans
Batrider
377 picks · 483 bans
Lion
375 picks · 194 bans
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 588 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 402 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 586 bans
Beastmaster
339 picks · 857 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:37
HULIGANI 56%Ban9PivoSamogon 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 56:50.
Game 2prediction missed26:46
HULIGANI 56%Ban9PivoSamogon 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 48:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 56%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2