?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BTC Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 44 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
58%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 33 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%

BTC Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
Alone · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 573 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 412 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 406 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
453 picks · 516 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
448 picks · 222 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 894 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:31
HULIGANI 78%BTC Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistssnovv1
49% · 58 games50% · 275 games
BeastmasterMnz
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirage
44% · 210 games44% · 56 games
ViperAlone
Viper
Pangolier
PangolierCorrupted
46% · 265 games54% · 72 games
Treant ProtectorPrada
Treant Protector
Techies
TechiesRESPECT
39% · 40 games54% · 322 games
HoodwinkMjz
Hoodwink
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
62% · 152 games
Game 2prediction correct44:19
HULIGANI 79%BTC Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertassnovv1
51% · 85 games50% · 90 games
SlarkMnz
Slark
Invoker
InvokerMirage
55% · 61 game45% · 113 games
ViperAlone
Viper
Bristleback
BristlebackCorrupted
49% · 84 games46% · 134 games
RubickPrada
Rubick
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
53% · 126 games49% · 133 games
WeaverMjz
Weaver
Ringmaster
Ringmastersayuw
53% · 114 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 92%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2