PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FBFive Beaversloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 24 games
Rubick
OneJey · 22 games
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
Batridersignature
Panto · 18 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
OneJey · 18 games
Five Beavers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
410 picks · 348 bans
Hoodwink
408 picks · 447 bans
Weaver
385 picks · 826 bans
Tiny
377 picks · 873 bans
Phoenix
358 picks · 739 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 509 bans
Clockwerk
325 picks · 499 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 555 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
HULIGANI 76%Five Beavers 24%
The model gave 76% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Game 2prediction correct
HULIGANI 76%Five Beavers 24%
The model gave 76% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 76%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2