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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Panto · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 18 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 15 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 13 games
54%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 7 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
57%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
439 picks · 521 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
438 picks · 537 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 568 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
367 picks · 280 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
359 picks · 400 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
346 picks · 172 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 726 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
319 picks · 144 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:35
HULIGANI 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Hydra in 53:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
46% · 170 games45% · 193 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidv1olent-
67% · 33 games43% · 124 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Magnus
MagnusAlberkaaa
51% · 114 games51% · 148 games
DawnbreakerActor
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
50% · 158 games58% · 137 games
Nyx Assassinprblms
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMalady
49% · 127 games
Game 2prediction correct27:19
HULIGANI 50%Hydra 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
42% · 128 games55% · 242 games
Magnusselfhate
Magnus
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
43% · 174 games55% · 452 games
TinyEthereal
Tiny
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
46% · 219 games54% · 170 games
EnigmaActor
Enigma
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonqueezy
49% · 211 games55% · 110 games
Nyx Assassinprblms
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMalady
47% · 242 games
Game 3prediction correct42:39
HULIGANI 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:01:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorv1olent-
45% · 138 games47% · 437 games
PangolierEthereal
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerMirage
48% · 181 game48% · 175 games
Templar Assassinselfhate
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
49% · 198 games53% · 222 games
BeastmasterActor
Beastmaster
Chen
ChenMalady
64% · 132 games52% · 113 games
Nyx Assassinprblms
Nyx Assassin
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
45% · 298 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 59%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3