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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 12 games
33%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 10 games
80%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
raregods · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xn丶e · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
577 picks · 590 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 422 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 368 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 695 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 847 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
306 picks · 629 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:26
HULIGANI 64%Kalmychata 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
45% · 109 games49% · 251 game
BatriderEthereal
Batrider
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
48% · 133 games54% · 41 game
Void SpiritWoE
Void Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienderase
44% · 117 games49% · 135 games
MarciAnkou
Marci
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterHellscream
53% · 59 games60% · 71 game
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorBb3px
48% · 80 games
Game 2prediction correct33:21
HULIGANI 68%Kalmychata 32%
The model gave 68% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
44% · 98 games48% · 116 games
MedusaWoE
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
55% · 57 games58% · 32 games
Keeper of the LightEthereal
Keeper of the Light
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
49% · 138 games46% · 243 games
PangolierAnkou
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenBb3px
48% · 98 games56% · 59 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Leshrac
LeshracHellscream
51% · 59 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 80%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2