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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 15 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%

Kalmychata

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 16 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 13 games
69%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ethereal · 12 games
75%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
477 picks · 467 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 210 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 376 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 838 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 891 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
295 picks · 442 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
292 picks · 257 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
289 picks · 572 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total77% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
HULIGANI 67%Kalmychata 33%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomv1olent-
56% · 229 games53% · 345 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
49% · 383 games44% · 221 game
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
Earthshakererase
52% · 151 game43% · 184 games
Dark SeerAnkou
Dark Seer
Tusk
Tuskaik
48% · 326 games51% · 502 games
Tinyraregods
Tiny
Pugna
Pugnaslimeyao
58% · 163 games
Game 2prediction missed16:27
HULIGANI 65%Kalmychata 35%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusav1olent-
52% · 104 games55% · 197 games
LunaWoE
Luna
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Propheterase
50% · 95 games53% · 199 games
EarthshakerEthereal
Earthshaker
Pangolier
PangolierBb3px
50% · 150 games46% · 98 games
SlardarAnkou
Slardar
Batrider
Batrideraik
47% · 114 games47% · 73 games
Dazzleraregods
Dazzle
Clockwerk
Clockwerkslimeyao
49% · 104 games
Game 3prediction correct45:20
HULIGANI 64%Kalmychata 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenv1olent-
52% · 53 games45% · 87 games
LycanAnkou
Lycan
Monkey King
Monkey Kingerase
52% · 104 games55% · 82 games
Void SpiritWoE
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusBb3px
62% · 82 games42% · 139 games
LeshracEthereal
Leshrac
Bane
Baneaik
49% · 38 games41% · 83 games
Bounty Hunterraregods
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
Tuskslimeyao
52% · 114 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 77%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3