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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
61%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 18 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
327 picks · 308 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 799 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
276 picks · 753 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
276 picks · 308 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
274 picks · 137 bans
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
270 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 790 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total53% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:13
HULIGANI 47%Kalmychata 53%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 33:04.
Game 2prediction missed21:9
HULIGANI 47%Kalmychata 53%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 53%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2