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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
61%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 16 games
56%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 15 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 15 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 15 games
73%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
387 picks · 351 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
345 picks · 174 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 862 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
296 picks · 343 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
283 picks · 127 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 792 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
280 picks · 248 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
272 picks · 685 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total53% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:22
HULIGANI 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 34:26.
Game 2prediction missed46:33
HULIGANI 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 56:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 53%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2