European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 19 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
Level UP
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 19 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 13 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 11 games
Mirana
Ponlo · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
385 picks · 296 bans
Puck
321 picks · 728 bans
Dark Willow
309 picks · 166 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 294 bans
Batrider
293 picks · 787 bans
Dawnbreaker
266 picks · 618 bans
Nature's Prophet
265 picks · 531 bans
Marci
245 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:22
HULIGANI 79%Level UP 21%
The model gave 79% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Level UP in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanBb3px
Dragon KnightMaTson
Clinkzv1olent-
BatriderAtoufix
Puckerase
Naga SirenRESPECT
Pugnaslimeyao
Game 2prediction missed21:41
HULIGANI 79%Level UP 21%
The model gave 79% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Level UP in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursav1olent-
Queen of PainMaTson
TidehunterBb3px
BatriderAtoufix
Shadow Fienderase
Tinyslimeyao
ZeusRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 92%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2