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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Most Wantedloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 29 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 24 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 21 game
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 21 game
52%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 22 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 16 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
73%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 14 games
86%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 14 games
79%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
782 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
582 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
578 picks · 573 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
503 picks · 351 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 596 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 273 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 753 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1108 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength61% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:4
HULIGANI 48%Most Wanted 52%
The model gave 52% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 19:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
54% · 288 games44% · 349 games
Queen of Painniche
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
52% · 353 games62% · 71 game
Faceless Void423
Faceless Void
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
47% · 397 games51% · 336 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
49% · 392 games47% · 360 games
Snapfirenot me
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
49% · 237 games48% · 551 game
JakiroPonlo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed28:11
HULIGANI 49%Most Wanted 51%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
54% · 94 games51% · 213 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
48% · 426 games54% · 265 games
Queen of Painniche
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsBb3px
46% · 292 games53% · 290 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
46% · 233 games55% · 174 games
Marcinot me
Marci
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
46% · 192 games49% · 295 games
WarlockPonlo
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 53%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2