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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 21 game
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 16 games
56%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 14 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
50%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 13 games
54%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 13 games
69%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 12 games
58%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 21 game
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 20 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 17 games
65%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 13 games
62%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
459 picks · 199 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 670 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 836 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 591 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 179 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 691 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 625 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 296 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
HULIGANI 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracre1bl
50% · 62 games37% · 23 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarRAMZES666
55% · 37 games48% · 97 games
Templar AssassinSupream^
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
57% · 119 games49% · 199 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderOneJey
53% · 168 games48% · 106 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Io
IoPanto
47% · 44 games44% · 5 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed24:9
HULIGANI 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaRAMZES666
42% · 100 games53% · 94 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightre1bl
46% · 112 games53% · 241 game
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
56% · 86 games52% · 19 games
AxeForce
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
48% · 81 game43% · 3 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
53% · 167 games48% · 189 games
GyrocopterNARMAN
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction correct35:39
HULIGANI 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 1:07:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightre1bl
42% · 116 games52% · 253 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Luna
LunaRAMZES666
44% · 112 games59% · 104 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Doom
DoomBb3px
39% · 225 games50% · 163 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
47% · 125 games64% · 98 games
EarthshakerNARMAN
Earthshaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOneJey
46% · 106 games59% · 66 games
Oraclebengan
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3