FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 18 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
Snapfire
slimeyao · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 15 games
MOUZ
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 23 games
Tusk
yamich · 23 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 16 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Dawnbreakersignature
BOOM · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
472 picks · 242 bans
Disruptor
463 picks · 448 bans
Puck
355 picks · 952 bans
Pugna
322 picks · 369 bans
Warlock
304 picks · 147 bans
Earthshaker
289 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 221 bans
Nature's Prophet
287 picks · 667 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:22
HULIGANI 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladechempik
HuskarCrystallis
Puckerase
LeshracMidOne
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
BeastmasterBOOM
SnapfireRESPECT
DazzleSeleri
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Tuskyamich
Game 2prediction correct17:29
HULIGANI 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingchempik
MedusaCrystallis
DoomBb3px
Queen of PainMidOne
Puckerase
MarsBOOM
JakiroRESPECT
ChenSeleri
Tuskslimeyao
Pudgeyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 82%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2