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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 43 games
70%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 40 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 37 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 37 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 37 games
46%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 34 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 33 games
52%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 55 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 42 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 29 games
45%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 29 games
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 29 games
45%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 28 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
502 picks · 274 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 561 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
447 picks · 350 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 349 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
379 picks · 328 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
349 picks · 831 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 838 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
326 picks · 173 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:38
HULIGANI 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:10:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerssnovv1
47% · 195 games54% · 282 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckMirage
46% · 502 games48% · 496 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeCorrupted
42% · 184 games53% · 377 games
SlardarBOOM
Slardar
Venomancer
VenomancerRESPECT
45% · 71 game46% · 83 games
Techiesyamich
Techies
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
53% · 389 games62% · 103 games
Treant ProtectorTobi
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct7:17
HULIGANI 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherssnovv1
57% · 44 games47% · 295 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
45% · 340 games54% · 55 games
LycanBOOM
Lycan
Largo
LargoCorrupted
59% · 57 games47% · 320 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
44% · 359 games52% · 86 games
Keeper of the Lightyamich
Keeper of the Light
Oracle
OracleRESPECT
47% · 42 games58% · 86 games
VenomancerTobi
Venomancer
Game 3prediction missed27:22
HULIGANI 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
49% · 133 games54% · 302 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckMirage
51% · 463 games50% · 184 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
44% · 236 games53% · 179 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
48% · 135 games55% · 108 games
Keeper of the Lightyamich
Keeper of the Light
Techies
Techiessayuw
47% · 41 game49% · 235 games
Shadow ShamanTobi
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 58%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3