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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 25 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
40%
Windranger
Windranger
re1bl · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OneJey · 15 games
27%

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 16 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 603 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 372 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
343 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 445 bans
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 563 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
308 picks · 161 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 413 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:37
HULIGANI 47%Natus Vincere 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
52% · 145 games55% · 93 games
Chaos KnightYuragi
Chaos Knight
Windranger
Windrangerre1bl
46% · 124 games51% · 180 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawMiyaoo
47% · 152 games51% · 240 games
Dragon KnightSancity
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickPanto
55% · 241 game46% · 224 games
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOneJey
44% · 169 games54% · 94 games
MarciZayac
Marci
Game 2prediction missed43:13
HULIGANI 47%Natus Vincere 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckre1bl
54% · 177 games44% · 168 games
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
52% · 175 games44% · 44 games
Queen of PainSancity
Queen of Pain
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMiyaoo
54% · 170 games56% · 275 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
51% · 176 games39% · 65 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPanto
44% · 27 games53% · 173 games
ClockwerkKuroKy
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed24:7
HULIGANI 46%Natus Vincere 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenv1olent-
45% · 100 games60% · 74 games
Chaos KnightYuragi
Chaos Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendre1bl
43% · 30 games47% · 96 games
RazorNefrit
Razor
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMiyaoo
52% · 98 games53% · 82 games
ZeusSancity
Zeus
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
43% · 69 games54% · 42 games
MarciZayac
Marci
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPanto
45% · 177 games56% · 180 games
BatriderKuroKy
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 57%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3