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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 45 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 41 game
68%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 35 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 33 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 33 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 33 games
55%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
27%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 9 games
11%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 9 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
22%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
13%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 8 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gbc · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 929 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 416 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
472 picks · 619 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 576 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
428 picks · 943 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
402 picks · 247 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 661 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 441 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 19%
Hero pool strength71% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:31
HULIGANI 75%Natus Vincere Junior 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
50% · 288 games50% · 252 games
Shadow FiendonLiTaL
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMirage
47% · 267 games55% · 279 games
Bristlebackkrol9ash
Bristleback
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
42% · 93 games49% · 452 games
TinyGothic-
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorRESPECT
50% · 225 games51% · 93 games
LionHyugadoto
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
54% · 203 games
Game 2prediction correct29:11
HULIGANI 75%Natus Vincere Junior 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordv1olent-
45% · 76 games50% · 210 games
UrsaonLiTaL
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
48% · 234 games47% · 114 games
Underlordkrol9ash
Underlord
Largo
LargoBb3px
56% · 33 games55% · 198 games
RingmasterHyugadoto
Ringmaster
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
50% · 191 game45% · 94 games
Skywrath MageGothic-
Skywrath Mage
Dazzle
DazzleRESPECT
54% · 82 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 88%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2