?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 28 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 23 games
39%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
RESPECT · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Mirage · 17 games
35%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 16 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 16 games
75%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Corrupted · 14 games
57%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ssnovv1 · 13 games
54%

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 28 games
46%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 24 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Covisnine · 22 games
32%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 19 games
32%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Covisnine · 13 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
514 picks · 332 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
439 picks · 238 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
401 picks · 178 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
349 picks · 320 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 505 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 289 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 510 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
289 picks · 131 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 31%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total75% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
HULIGANI 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 48:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterssnovv1
56% · 121 game62% · 23 games
Anti-Magebyun
Anti-Mage
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
47% · 301 game47% · 443 games
Pangolieryoung G
Pangolier
Largo
Largoelmo^^
55% · 162 games52% · 123 games
Enigmatakizawa
Enigma
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
53% · 503 games42% · 419 games
Dark Willowariel
Dark Willow
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRein
52% · 58 games44% · 137 games
DazzleVaniLLl
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct35:18
HULIGANI 65%Nemiga Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magessnovv1
57% · 28 games44% · 108 games
Ursabyun
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
50% · 350 games41% · 98 games
Brewmastertakizawa
Brewmaster
Largo
Largoelmo^^
61% · 193 games46% · 259 games
Pangolieryoung G
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRein
47% · 119 games41% · 146 games
TechiesVaniLLl
Techies
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterqueezy
59% · 63 games55% · 142 games
Lionariel
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 75%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2