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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 21 game
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 16 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 16 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 13 games
69%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 12 games
50%

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 22 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 21 game
48%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
389 picks · 495 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
377 picks · 299 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 552 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 387 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
317 picks · 726 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 153 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
293 picks · 408 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% One Move
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total59% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
HULIGANI 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
50% · 390 games43% · 275 games
MorphlingWoE
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
53% · 339 games42% · 439 games
PangolierSSS
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaAlberkaaa
57% · 191 game44% · 250 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Lion
Lionqueezy
52% · 344 games50% · 347 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRESPECT
54% · 140 games54% · 93 games
Ogre MagiJANTER
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct47:29
HULIGANI 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
49% · 110 games45% · 17 games
SpectreWoE
Spectre
Viper
ViperMirage
47% · 28 games52% · 94 games
BristlebackSSS
Bristleback
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
54% · 182 games41% · 65 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
44% · 31 game55% · 230 games
TinyDifference
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinqueezy
55% · 82 games42% · 27 games
LichJANTER
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 59%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2