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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 20 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 19 games
37%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Panto · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 12 games
33%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 11 games
73%
Lich
Lich
Malady · 11 games
27%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 30 games
37%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 21 game
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 19 games
68%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 724 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 314 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 400 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
381 picks · 874 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
380 picks · 657 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
379 picks · 1014 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 508 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total67% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
HULIGANI 59%One Move 41%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursav1olent-
49% · 117 games43% · 124 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Tiny
Tinyerase
53% · 406 games43% · 302 games
Dragon KnightDifference
Dragon Knight
Enigma
EnigmaMalik
58% · 118 games61% · 151 game
BristlebackChodΣX
Bristleback
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
54% · 17 games53% · 37 games
Ancient Apparitionififall
Ancient Apparition
Windranger
Windrangermrls
43% · 138 games48% · 182 games
WeaverGilgir
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct28:5
HULIGANI 60%One Move 40%
The model gave 60% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 22:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
49% · 163 games47% · 199 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
52% · 243 games46% · 370 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
57% · 204 games53% · 152 games
MagnusChodΣX
Magnus
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
47% · 278 games49% · 282 games
RubickGilgir
Rubick
Windranger
Windrangermrls
48% · 157 games58% · 42 games
Ancient Apparitionififall
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 67%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2