?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 19 games
74%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 15 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 13 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 28 games
64%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 14 games
86%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 12 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
412 picks · 331 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
335 picks · 177 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 763 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
319 picks · 315 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 810 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 612 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
268 picks · 534 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
253 picks · 339 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:33
HULIGANI 66%Passion UA 34%
The model gave 66% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Passion UA in 45:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordv1olent-
63% · 19 games48% · 143 games
Dragon KnightCrystallize
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordBb3px
49% · 72 games55% · 50 games
RazorBatyuk
Razor
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
48% · 243 games52% · 127 games
Sand KingMoonlight
Sand King
Rubick
Rubickslimeyao
41% · 80 games48% · 104 games
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRESPECT
56% · 95 games53% · 85 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct41:15
HULIGANI 62%Passion UA 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
52% · 102 games54% · 146 games
MedusaCrystallize
Medusa
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBb3px
49% · 250 games57% · 120 games
EarthshakerBatyuk
Earthshaker
Sand King
Sand Kingerase
48% · 198 games48% · 226 games
Ember SpiritMoonlight
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
51% · 198 games44% · 141 game
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Snapfire
Snapfireslimeyao
44% · 162 games53% · 277 games
Clockwerkkreker
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct23:20
HULIGANI 60%Passion UA 40%
The model gave 60% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
47% · 169 games50% · 218 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand Kingerase
49% · 142 games53% · 116 games
EarthshakerBatyuk
Earthshaker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBb3px
51% · 90 games51% · 119 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenRESPECT
63% · 124 games50% · 27 games
GrimstrokeQBFY
Grimstroke
Snapfire
Snapfireslimeyao
39% · 106 games48% · 151 game
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 71%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3