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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 48 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 45 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 41 game
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 38 games
61%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 33 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
erase · 30 games
57%

Pipsqueak+4

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 48 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 48 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 44 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 42 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 34 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 32 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
47%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Palantimos · 30 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
636 picks · 815 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 580 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 400 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
451 picks · 298 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
406 picks · 1048 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 681 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 604 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
365 picks · 965 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total50% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:17
HULIGANI 50%Pipsqueak+4 50%
The model gave 50% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackssnovv1
48% · 348 games47% · 112 games
WeaverLowskill
Weaver
Puck
PuckMirage
48% · 474 games54% · 457 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
48% · 233 games58% · 225 games
Monkey KingCopy
Monkey King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRESPECT
50% · 439 games46% · 680 games
Jakiroaik
Jakiro
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
52% · 354 games48% · 374 games
Shadow ShamanEkki
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct26:15
HULIGANI 51%Pipsqueak+4 49%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonssnovv1
56% · 274 games48% · 253 games
Templar AssassinLowskill
Templar Assassin
Largo
LargoCorrupted
54% · 75 games39% · 309 games
Queen of PainCopy
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
47% · 347 games45% · 201 game
AxeMalik
Axe
Dazzle
DazzleRESPECT
49% · 148 games50% · 235 games
Shadow ShamanEkki
Shadow Shaman
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
56% · 244 games56% · 90 games
Treant Protectoraik
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 50%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2