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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 23 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 17 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 13 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
re1bl · 13 games
69%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 22 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 226 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 749 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 416 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 631 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 743 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
383 picks · 167 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
354 picks · 1024 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 726 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:29
HULIGANI 51%PSG Quest 49%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 26:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightv1olent-
53% · 67 games51% · 112 games
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Rubick
Rubickre1bl
42% · 290 games49% · 144 games
Vengeful SpiritTA2000
Vengeful Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBb3px
44% · 126 games55% · 200 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
48% · 74 games47% · 103 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Io
IoPanto
54% · 72 games62% · 70 games
Treant ProtectorDukalis
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct28:14
HULIGANI 54%PSG Quest 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendre1bl
57% · 21 game59% · 38 games
BroodmotherTA2000
Broodmother
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
55% · 160 games48% · 46 games
LinaNo!ob
Lina
Visage
VisageBb3px
41% · 26 games42% · 76 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
53% · 115 games42% · 102 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Oracle
OraclePanto
64% · 40 games45% · 100 games
PhoenixDukalis
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2