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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 19 games
68%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Panto · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 16 games
44%

PuckChamp

Lion
Lionsignature
QBFY · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 4 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Kaori · 3 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Sancity · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Shad · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaori · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 638 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
402 picks · 448 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 497 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
343 picks · 427 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 625 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 169 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 374 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
283 picks · 286 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength58% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:30
HULIGANI 50%PuckChamp 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 49:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
52% · 296 games44% · 266 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
52% · 69 games44% · 228 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
50% · 218 games47% · 173 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Warlock
WarlockPanto
67% · 16 games51% · 17 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Rubick
RubickOneJey
53% · 296 games54% · 211 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 2prediction missed18:42
HULIGANI 50%PuckChamp 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
49% · 297 games48% · 158 games
Templar AssassinSancity
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaAlberkaaa
55% · 115 games53% · 162 games
Monkey KingShad
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
46% · 184 games51% · 140 games
MagnusBOOM
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOneJey
55% · 74 games51% · 239 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderPanto
44% · 273 games48% · 244 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 54%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2