European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rest Farmerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 14 games
Dark Willow
OneJey · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
Techies
OneJey · 12 games
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 10 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 197 bans
Centaur Warrunner
451 picks · 673 bans
Batrider
440 picks · 849 bans
Tiny
427 picks · 588 bans
Rubick
415 picks · 179 bans
Mars
395 picks · 632 bans
Techies
389 picks · 300 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 679 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:37
HULIGANI 62%Rest Farmers 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 46:02.
Game 2prediction missed19:26
HULIGANI 62%Rest Farmers 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 41:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 62%
Series resultRest Farmers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2